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North Carolina Climate, the monthly newsletter of the State Climate Office of NC, covers the record-breaking drought conditions and introduces a few of the projects our students are working on. These projects will be highlighted in more detail throughout the New Year.
PDF version available for printing.

 

Dry November Exacerbates Drought November in NC is typically dry - many locations average less than 3 inches normally. But November 2007 was very dry - especially in central and eastern parts of the state. Indeed, November 2007 was a top 10 driest November on record for much of the piedmont and coastal plain, and ranked top 1 or 2 driest at many long-term gages, including: Rank Location 1 Raleigh-Durham Airport 2 Charlotte Airport 1 Lumberton 2 New Bern 2 Wilson 1 Roanoke Rapids As the map above shows, only the mountain counties experienced any substantial precipitation, though it was enough to bring drought relief to several counties. The US Drought Monitor valid December 4, 2007 shows an improvement in far western counties, but deterioration across central and eastern NC. See last month's newsletter for an overview of how the US Drought Monitor develops its weekly maps. The outlook for a wet winter is grim, as the La Nina event in the tropical Pacific Ocean is expected to continue through the spring of 2008. Historically, La Nina events are associated with below-normal precipitation in central and eastern NC.

 

Student Projects Students account for much of the success of the State Climate Office. We host several undergraduate and/or graduate students each semester. The experience can be invaluable for students as they develop new skills and discover new passions. As we prepare for the New Year, we'll highlight the student projects in this newsletter and the next. As projects wrap-up and are completed, we'll revisit them in greater detail in newsletters throughout the year. CRONOS Smart Search: The State Climate Office of North Carolina works closely with research and extension scientists to develop agricultural decision support tools. Data for these tools comes from the NC CRONOS Database, a digital database of high-resolution surface weather observations. Data and decision support tools are currently disseminated via the web, email, and telephone interaction with citizens. However, many rural North Carolina citizens do not have Internet access and could benefit from the climate data services provided by the SCO. In June 2007, the SCO was awarded a university seed grant to support the development of a text messaging service that will enable anyone with a text messaging capable mobile phone to interface with CRONOS and existing agricultural decision support tools. This is exciting technology and it will be used to develop other innovative tools and resources. We anticipate making the CRONOS Smart Search available by Summer, 2008. If you are interested in helping us test it, please let us know. Ask a Meteorologist archive and search: Weather is around us all and regularly changes with seasons and days. Meteorologists at the SCO are often asked specific questions about weather and the physical processes that drive it. We do our best to answer your questions about weather and climate. Questions are often submitted to us from the Ask a Meteorologist page on our website. For the past year, we have been archiving your questions and our corresponding answers. There will soon be a way to search this database. John Ross, an undergraduate student in Meteorology, has been helping with this endeavor. Because some questions are similar and others are completely unique, we hope this will be a great educational resource. We anticipate making the Ask a Meteorologist database searchable to everyone in early 2008. In the meantime, keep sending us your questions! Peanut model forecast evaluation: For the past several growing seasons, the State Climate Office of NC has provided support for automated peanut disease advisories. Agricultural research has demonstrated a consistent connection between certain weather conditions and Sclerotinia blight and leaf spot in peanut crop. Given a location, the disease advisories consider the past several days of weather to calculate disease favorability. Peanut growers use the information to make timely decisions that can prevent costly disease outbreaks. We have highlighted this specific project in the past and have been using our experimental numerical weather model to forecast favorable disease conditions. But how good are the disease favorability forecasts? John McGuire, an undergraduate student in Meteorology, is helping us to find out. We are comparing the actual conditions of the 2007 growing season (May-October) to our experimental MM5 weather model, a national weather model, climatology, persistence, and an ensemble of each. The results of this research will help us understand the limitations of the models and refine their capacity. Drought Tools: This year has been very dry and drought has been the lead of many news stories and conversations. Last month's newsletter highlighted ways that we monitor drought in North Carolina. Diana Thomas, undergraduate student in Meteorology, is helping to develop additional drought monitoring tools using our CRONOS database. This will enable us to calculate, in realtime, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). These indices can be calculated over multiple periods of time giving us a clearer picture of drought and drought progression.

 

Winter Weather Outlook La Niña conditions continue to strengthen. La Niña (cool phase) events are typically associated with drier winters in NC. During La Niña winters, the Jet Stream is less amplified, and doesn't tend to bring as many storms to NC. We are likely to experience a drier and warmer winter than the climatological normal.

Statewide Summary for November 2007

As part of the monthly newsletter, the SCO provides a basic summary of monthly conditions for all locations that have an automated reporting station. A daily version of this products is available online at:
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/review/

 

	Data for November 2007
Station Max Temp Min Temp Total Rainfall Avg Wind Speed Max Wind Speed Max Wind Gust Vector Avg Wind Speed Ahoskie, NC (KASJ) 78.8° F (+15.1° F) 11 mi 28.4° F (-10.9° F) 11 mi 0.3 in 2.7 mph 17.3 mph 26.5 mph 0.4 mph North Northwest (336°) Albemarle, NC (KVUJ) 77° F (+14.4° F) 3 mi 26.6° F (-10.8° F) 3 mi 3.4 mph 15 mph 24.2 mph 1.2 mph West (280°) Andrews, NC (KRHP) 71.6° F (+11° F) 1 mi 23° F (-10.8° F) 1 mi 1.8 in 2.3 mph 12.7 mph 21.9 mph 0.5 mph Northwest (304°) Asheboro, NC (KHBI) 75.2° F (+14.5° F) 5 mi 28.4° F (-11.7° F) 5 mi 0.1 in 3.8 mph 16.1 mph 24.2 mph 0.9 mph West Southwest (255°) Asheville, NC (KAVL) 72° F (+14.6° F) 0 mi 21° F (-14.3° F) 0 mi 1.2 in 6.6 mph 29.9 mph 38 mph 3.6 mph North Northwest (337°) Aurora, NC (AURO) 79.3° F (+13.9° F) 4 mi 29.7° F (-13.5° F) 4 mi 0.9 in 13.4 mph 21.1 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (318°) Beaufort, NC (KMRH) 91.9° F (+23.6° F) 4 mi 30.9° F (-15.4° F) 4 mi 0.8 in 9 mph 32.2 mph 46 mph 3.7 mph North Northwest (328°) Bogue, NC (KNJM) 80.1° F (+13.6° F) 17 mi 28.9° F (-16.3° F) 17 mi 0.7 in 6.8 mph 23 mph 42.6 mph 2.9 mph Northwest (319°) Boone, NC (KTNB) 64.4° F (+12.4° F) 1 mi 15.8° F (-13.7° F) 1 mi 0.3 in 7.2 mph 33.4 mph 49.5 mph 5.9 mph West Northwest (284°) Boone, NC (BOON) 64.7° F (+12.7° F) 1 mi 13.4° F (-16.1° F) 1 mi 0.9 in 26.1 mph 36.1 mph 3.4 mph West Northwest (290°) Buckland, NC (BUCK) 77.8° F (+14.9° F) 15 mi 25.7° F (-11.7° F) 15 mi 1.2 in 10.4 mph 18 mph 20.2 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (310°) Burlington, NC (KBUY) 77° F (+13.9° F) 2 mi 23° F (-14.8° F) 2 mi 0.4 in 4.7 mph 20.7 mph 31.1 mph 2 mph West Northwest (284°) Castle Hayne, NC (CAST) 78.8° F (+11.1° F) 0 mi 27.9° F (-15.3° F) 0 mi 0.9 in 17.4 mph 25.4 mph 31.7 mph 2 mph North Northwest (343°) Chapel Hill, NC (KIGX) 77° F (+14.7° F) 2 mi 27° F (-10.1° F) 2 mi 0.7 in 3.4 mph 16.1 mph 34.5 mph 2.4 mph North Northwest (334°) Charlotte, NC (KCLT) 86° F (+23.2° F) 1 mi 25° F (-16.8° F) 1 mi 0.5 in 5.7 mph 20.7 mph 28.8 mph 1.9 mph North Northwest (333°) Cherry Point, NC (KNKT) 80.1° F (+13.6° F) 0 mi 28° F (-17.2° F) 0 mi 0.8 in 8 mph 29.9 mph 39.1 mph 3.3 mph North Northwest (331°) Clayton, NC (CLAY) 76.4° F (+13.8° F) 3 mi 27.4° F (-11.3° F) 3 mi 0.6 in 17.4 mph 24.3 mph 1.9 mph Northwest (304°) Clayton, NC (CLA2) 77.9° F (+15.3° F) 3 mi 23.1° F (-15.6° F) 3 mi 0.8 in 9.1 mph 14.5 mph 1 mph Northwest (322°) Clinton, NC (KCTZ) 78.8° F (+13.9° F) 6 mi 28.4° F (-12.7° F) 6 mi 0.2 in 3.4 mph 20.7 mph 29.9 mph 1.3 mph Northwest (324°) Clinton, NC (CLIN) 77.4° F (+12.5° F) 0 mi 26.7° F (-14.4° F) 0 mi 0.5 in 17.9 mph 23.9 mph 29.5 mph 1.7 mph North Northwest (329°) Concord, NC (KJQF) 77° F (+13.5° F) 6 mi 26.6° F (-11° F) 6 mi 4.3 mph 20.7 mph 31.1 mph 1.8 mph Northwest (311°) Currituck, NC (KONX) 75.2° F (+10.2° F) 12 mi 33.8° F (-9.3° F) 12 mi 0 in 5.9 mph 27.6 mph 39.1 mph 3 mph North Northwest (337°) Edenton, NC (KEDE) 75.2° F (+10.4° F) 3 mi 28.4° F (-15.2° F) 3 mi 0.4 in 5.9 mph 20.7 mph 32.2 mph 2.2 mph Northwest (312°) Elizabeth City, NC (KECG) 78.1° F (+14.7° F) 1 mi 28° F (-15.5° F) 1 mi 0.6 in 8.3 mph 31.1 mph 41.4 mph 3.2 mph Northwest (317°) Elizabethtown, NC (KEYF) 78.8° F (+12.9° F) 4 mi 30.2° F (-10.9° F) 4 mi 0.4 in 3.1 mph 17.3 mph 29.9 mph 1.3 mph West (264°) Erwin, NC (KHRJ) 78.8° F (+15.6° F) 5 mi 30.2° F (-7.6° F) 5 mi 0.6 in 3.1 mph 16.1 mph 24.2 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (309°) Fayetteville, NC (KFAY) 78.1° F (+13.1° F) 5 mi 27° F (-13.7° F) 5 mi 0.2 in 7.6 mph 23 mph 31.1 mph 2.6 mph North Northwest (331°) Fletcher, NC (FLET) 72.8° F (+14.6° F) 0 mi 18.7° F (-12.9° F) 0 mi 1.5 in 16.7 mph 22.8 mph 2.2 mph North (352°) Fort Bragg, NC (KFBG) 77.5° F (+12.5° F) 5 mi 27.9° F (-14.5° F) 5 mi 0.6 in 5.1 mph 24.2 mph 29.9 mph 2.3 mph Northwest (313°) Franklin, NC (K1A5) 73.4° F (+13.9° F) 3 mi 21.2° F (-11.4° F) 3 mi 0.7 in 2.4 mph 17.3 mph 26.5 mph 1.4 mph West Northwest (304°) Franklin, NC (WINE) 59.2° F (-0.3° F) 11 mi 15.2° F (-17.4° F) 11 mi 0 in 20.1 mph 26 mph 4.8 mph West Northwest (294°) Frying Pan Mountain, NC (FRYI) 63° F (+5.9° F) 10 mi 14.4° F (-18° F) 10 mi 0.2 in 35.9 mph 41.5 mph 5.5 mph West (273°) Gastonia, NC (KAKH) 78.1° F (+15.6° F) 4 mi 28° F (-10.8° F) 4 mi 0.6 in 3.7 mph 17.3 mph 23 mph 2.3 mph North (6°) Goldsboro, NC (KGSB) 78.8° F (+12.5° F) 0 mi 26.8° F (-15.8° F) 0 mi 0.4 in 5.9 mph 21.9 mph 31.1 mph 2 mph West Northwest (304°) Goldsboro, NC (KGWW) 77° F (+10.7° F) 8 mi 26.6° F (-16° F) 8 mi 0.2 in 4.7 mph 21.9 mph 29.9 mph 1.3 mph West Northwest (303°) Goldsboro, NC (GOLD) 77° F (+10.7° F) 5 mi 24.7° F (-17.9° F) 5 mi 0.2 in 20.6 mph 27.7 mph 1.8 mph West (281°) Greensboro, NC (KGSO) 75° F (+15.1° F) 0 mi 26.1° F (-12.5° F) 0 mi 0.8 in 6.8 mph 21.9 mph 34.5 mph 2.7 mph West (273°) Greensboro, NC (NCAT) 74.8° F (+14.9° F) 12 mi 28.5° F (-10.1° F) 12 mi 1.4 in 13.4 mph 22 mph 22.4 mph 1.8 mph West Northwest (292°) Greenville, NC (KPGV) 77° F (+12.4° F) 1 mi 28.4° F (-12.3° F) 1 mi 0.2 in 4.6 mph 24.2 mph 31.1 mph 1.3 mph Northwest (313°) Hatteras, NC (KHSE) 75° F (+10.2° F) 0 mi 43° F (-7.3° F) 0 mi 1.9 in 8.5 mph 26.5 mph 42.6 mph 3.6 mph Northwest (323°) Hendersonville, NC (BEAR) 62.6° F (+2.3° F) 7 mi 19.2° F (-15.2° F) 7 mi 1.8 in 40 mph 48.7 mph 9 mph Northeast (51°) Hickory, NC (KHKY) 75° F (+14.4° F) 0 mi 24.1° F (-15° F) 0 mi 1 in 4.6 mph 19.6 mph 29.9 mph 2.1 mph Northwest (312°) High Point, NC (HIGH) 74.2° F (+12.3° F) 2 mi 23° F (-16.6° F) 2 mi 0.8 in 10.9 mph 18.3 mph 1 mph Northwest (319°) Hoffman, NC (KHFF) 77.9° F (+15.5° F) 14 mi 23.9° F (-17.9° F) 14 mi 0.3 in 5.3 mph 19.6 mph 29.9 mph 2 mph Northwest (316°) Jackson Springs, NC (JACK) 76.1° F (+13.7° F) 0 mi 27.3° F (-14.5° F) 0 mi 0.4 in 18.6 mph 26.2 mph 2 mph North Northwest (330°) Jacksonville, NC (KNCA) 81° F (+13.7° F) 4 mi 27° F (-16.2° F) 4 mi 0.6 in 7.4 mph 25.3 mph 38 mph 3.2 mph Northwest (325°) Jacksonville, NC (KOAJ) 78.8° F (+11.5° F) 16 mi 26.6° F (-16.6° F) 16 mi 0.5 in 5.6 mph 21.9 mph 33.4 mph 1.8 mph Northwest (320°) Jefferson, NC (KGEV)