Fall Color

November 2007

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North Carolina Climate, the monthly newsletter of the State Climate Office of NC, continues the focus on drought in NC and how the SCO contributes to drought monitoring and outlooks.
PDF version available for printing.



Drought Still Exceptional, Despite Some Rainfall

NC Precipitation (October 22-30, 2007) - click to see larger imageLate October brought some welcome, albeit short-term, relief from the exceptional drought conditions in central and eastern North Carolina. A classic coastal storm streamed 2-6 inches of precipitation to the central and eastern parts of the state. A few locations experienced in excess of 6 inches, and one CoCoRaHS gage (NC-AG-1 near Sparta) reported 9.59 inches from this storm.

While the rain brought benefits to soils, streams, and reservoirs in central and eastern NC, the western counties missed most of the moisture. Little benefit was observed in the Catawba, French Broad, Little Tennessee, and Hiwassee river basins.

Despite the rain that did fall, many drought indicators continue to show long-term exceptional conditions. Ryan Boyles has been tracking a series of short-term and longer-term drought indicators, and a statewide average of 4 show that as of the end of October, 2007 ranks as the #1 most severe drought since regional records began in 1895. As shown below, the drought indicators show different severity at different times in the past, but 2007 has now passed 1925 as the most severe statewide drought.

Statewide Drought Indicators - click to see larger image

It's also important to note that these indicators completely ignore human influences on drought severity such as reservoir construction and population growth. The 4 drought indexes used here are only influenced by temperature and/or precipitation.  Drought severity is also largely defined based on impacts to agriculture, water resources, and the larger society. This leads to an important question: How do we monitor and designate drought in NC?


How do We Monitor and Designate Drought in NC?

NC Drought map as of November 6, 2007Drought monitoring requires 2 very different kinds of information - objective information from environmental sensors (such as thermometers, rain gages, soil moisture sensors, stream gages, etc) as well subjective information on impacts from people who live and work in the community (such as water supply, crop health, fire danger). In North Carolina, the Drought Management Advisory Council brings together folks from local, state, and federal agencies that meet each week and combine the sensor information with impact assessments. Based on all of these, a recommended depiction for drought severity in NC is provided to a national coordinator who serves as the author that week for the US Drought Monitor. The US Drought Monitor combines similar assessments and recommendations from most other states to provide a single map and depiction of drought severity in the United States. The weekly drought maps are based on data through Tuesday of each week, and are published on Thursday mornings each week. Anytime there is drought in NC, a crew of folks meets on Tuesday afternoons to discuss the best depiction of drought in NC and make recommendations to the national author.


Drought Monitoring - Using CRONOS H2O

Supported by the NC DENR Division of Water Resources, CRONOS H2O provides interactive mapping and data lookup of water resource information over the Carolinas using data from the US Geological Survey, the DENR Division of Water Resources, the US Army Corps of Engineers, and others. The database combines historical and real-time stream flow, groundwater, reservoir, and precipitation observations into a common, intuitive interface. This tool provides users with current and historical data as well as drought and flood monitoring capabilities.

CRONOS H2O map showing 1 month streamflow percentiles. Click on map for larger image.
CRONOS H2O map showing 3 month precipitation percentiles. Click on map for larger image.
1-month streamflow percentiles
3-month precipitation percentiles

 


Winter Weather and Drought Outlook

The outlook for North Carolina for December - April is still suggesting an increased likelihood of below-normal precipitation, especially for central and eastern parts of the state. The outlook is largely tied to a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean - La Niña (cool phase) events are typically associated with drier winters in NC. During La Niña winters, the Jet Stream is less amplified, and doesn't tend to bring as many storms to NC. Indeed, coastal storms during La Niña events are generally infrequent - which is why the coastal storm in late October was surprising to many atmospheric scientists and forecasters.

Will this winter bring enough moisture to recharge our water supplies? Maybe, but most indicators suggest no.  We need 20-30 inches over the next 6 months to show any substantial recharge, and 30-50 inches to eliminate the deficits accumulated over the past seasons. Normal precipitation for November-April is ~20 inches for most of North Carolina, and the outlook for below-normal precipitation is not encouraging. Indeed, we may see mandatory water restrictions in place across NC through the winter and possibly even through next summer if conditions don't turn wetter.

CPC 3-month precipitation probability - click for larger image
CPC 3-month temperature probability - click for larger image

 

Statewide Summary for October 2007

As part of the monthly newsletter, the SCO provides a basic summary of monthly conditions for all locations that have an automated reporting station. A daily version of this products is available online at:
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/review/

 
Data for October 2007
 
Station
Max Temp
Min Temp
Total
Rainfall
Avg Wind Speed
Max Wind Speed
Max Wind Gust
Vector Avg Wind Speed
Ahoskie, NC (KASJ)
96.8° F
(+23.7° F)
11 mi
35.6° F
(-12.1° F)
11 mi
2.6 in
2.9 mph
12.7 mph
21.9 mph
0.7 mph
Northeast (43°)
Albemarle, NC (KVUJ)
84.2° F
(+11.9° F)
3 mi
39.2° F
(-7.5° F)
3 mi
1.9 mph
12.7 mph
20.7 mph
1.2 mph
North (359°)
Andrews, NC (KRHP)
87.8° F
(+17.1° F)
1 mi
30.2° F
(-11.3° F)
1 mi
0.3 in
1.8 mph
12.7 mph
25.3 mph
0.6 mph
Southwest (228°)
Asheboro, NC (KHBI)
91.4° F
(+21.1° F)
5 mi
32° F
(-17° F)
5 mi
2.4 in
2.5 mph
13.8 mph
20.7 mph
0.3 mph
Northeast (34°)
Asheville, NC (KAVL)
82.9° F
(+15.8° F)
0 mi
27° F
(-16.3° F)
0 mi
2.9 in
4.6 mph
19.6 mph
31.1 mph
0.5 mph
Northwest (323°)
Aurora, NC (AURO)
92.2° F
(+18.4° F)
4 mi
48.1° F
(-4.3° F)
4 mi
0.8 in
11.9 mph
18.7 mph
0.3 mph
South Southeast (147°)
Beaufort, NC (KMRH)
89.1° F
(+12.6° F)
4 mi
48.9° F
(-6.2° F)
4 mi
5.1 in
7.2 mph
20.7 mph
28.8 mph
1.1 mph
Northeast (46°)
Bogue, NC (KNJM)
77° F
(+2.4° F)
17 mi
43° F
(-10.9° F)
17 mi
7.9 mph
17.3 mph
31.1 mph
4.3 mph
North Northeast (25°)
Boone, NC (KTNB)
80.6° F
(+19° F)
1 mi
26.6° F
(-11.1° F)
1 mi
3.2 in
4 mph
19.6 mph
27.6 mph
0.7 mph
West Southwest (246°)
Boone, NC (BOON)
80.3° F
(+18.7° F)
1 mi
25° F
(-12.7° F)
1 mi
7.5 in
16.3 mph
24.1 mph
1.2 mph
West (260°)
Buckland, NC (BUCK)
89.2° F
(+17.3° F)
15 mi
31.2° F
(-14.3° F)
15 mi
9.6 in
7.1 mph
14 mph
16.1 mph
0.1 mph
East (101°)
Burlington, NC (KBUY)
93.9° F
(+21.3° F)
2 mi
30° F
(-16.3° F)
2 mi
6.3 in
3.7 mph
15 mph
23 mph
0.9 mph
North Northwest (332°)
Castle Hayne, NC (CAST)
90.4° F
(+15.4° F)
0 mi
42.9° F
(-8.5° F)
0 mi
4.9 in
12.9 mph
18.6 mph
18.7 mph
1.6 mph
East Northeast (69°)
Chapel Hill, NC (KIGX)
91.9° F
(+20.6° F)
2 mi
30° F
(-15.1° F)
2 mi
4.8 in
3 mph
15 mph
23 mph
1.7 mph
North (4°)
Charlotte, NC (KCLT)
91.9° F
(+19.3° F)
1 mi
33.1° F
(-17.8° F)
1 mi
2.5 in
5.3 mph
13.8 mph
24.2 mph
1.7 mph
North Northeast (25°)
Cherry Point, NC (KNKT)
90° F
(+15.4° F)
0 mi
44.1° F
(-9.8° F)
0 mi
3.3 in
6.5 mph
21.9 mph
29.9 mph
1.7 mph
Northeast (49°)
Clayton, NC (CLAY)
89.8° F
(+17.5° F)
3 mi
35° F
(-13.7° F)
3 mi
3.1 in
12.9 mph
20.7 mph
0.3 mph
East Northeast (64°)
Clayton, NC (CLA2)
92.2° F
(+19.9° F)
3 mi
30.3° F
(-18.4° F)
3 mi
4.8 in
7.2 mph
12.3 mph
0.3 mph
North Northeast (16°)
Clinton, NC (KCTZ)
91.4° F
(+17.4° F)
6 mi
37.4° F
(-11.9° F)
6 mi
2.4 in
2.7 mph
13.8 mph
23 mph
0.7 mph
North Northeast (30°)
Clinton, NC (CLIN)
90.1° F
(+16.1° F)
0 mi
35.5° F
(-13.8° F)
0 mi
10 in
13 mph
24.1 mph
23.8 mph
1.1 mph
Northeast (48°)
Concord, NC (KJQF)
91.4° F
(+18.2° F)
6 mi
32° F
(-14.6° F)
6 mi
3.7 mph
17.3 mph
32.2 mph
0.7 mph
North Northwest (335°)
Currituck, NC (KONX)
91.4° F
(+17.8° F)
12 mi
46.4° F
(-5.2° F)
12 mi
0.1 in
3.6 mph
15 mph
20.7 mph
1.2 mph
East Southeast (121°)
Edenton, NC (KEDE)
91.4° F
(+18.4° F)
3 mi
35.6° F
(-16° F)
3 mi
1.9 in
5.5 mph
21.9 mph
28.8 mph
0.8 mph
Southeast (138°)
Elizabeth City, NC (KECG)
93.9° F
(+21.6° F)
1 mi
35.1° F
(-17.7° F)
1 mi
2.9 in
6.7 mph
21.9 mph
33.4 mph
1.2 mph
East Southeast (102°)
Elizabethtown, NC (KEYF)
91.4° F
(+17° F)
4 mi
37.4° F
(-12.9° F)
4 mi
2.5 in
2 mph
13.8 mph
26.5 mph
0.6 mph
South Southwest (199°)
Erwin, NC (KHRJ)
95° F
(+22.6° F)
5 mi
37.4° F
(-9.7° F)
5 mi
3.6 in
3.3 mph
17.3 mph
21.9 mph
1.1 mph
East Northeast (78°)
Fayetteville, NC (KFAY)
93.9° F
(+20° F)
5 mi
36° F
(-13.4° F)
5 mi
4.1 in
6.6 mph
18.4 mph
25.3 mph
1.5 mph
Northeast (48°)
Fletcher, NC (FLET)
81.8° F
(+13.8° F)
0 mi
26.3° F
(-12.7° F)
0 mi
2.9 in
15.8 mph
24.4 mph
0.6 mph
North (359°)
Fort Bragg, NC (KFBG)
93.9° F
(+19.9° F)
5 mi
35.6° F
(-15.7° F)
5 mi
4.8 in
4.5 mph
17.3 mph
21.9 mph
1.1 mph
North Northeast (20°)
Franklin, NC (K1A5)
84.2° F
(+14.8° F)
3 mi
30.2° F
(-11.3° F)
3 mi
0.8 in
1.3 mph
13.8 mph
20.7 mph
0.5 mph
West Southwest (246°)
Franklin, NC (WINE)
69.1° F
(-0.3° F)
11 mi
31.2° F
(-10.3° F)
11 mi
0 in
14.6 mph
21.9 mph
2.1 mph
Southeast (144°)
Frying Pan Mountain, NC (FRYI)
72.5° F
(+6.3° F)
10 mi
27.4° F
(-13.3° F)
10 mi
0 in
33.9 mph
38.6 mph
4.9 mph
South Southeast (168°)
Gastonia, NC (KAKH)
93.9° F
(+21.7° F)
4 mi
36° F
(-12.2° F)
4 mi
2.6 in
2.9 mph
13.8 mph
20.7 mph
2.1 mph
North Northeast (30°)
Goldsboro, NC (KGSB)
92.8° F
(+17.9° F)
0 mi
35.8° F
(-14.9° F)
0 mi
4.1 in
5 mph
17.3 mph
26.5 mph
1.1 mph
Northeast (41°)
Goldsboro, NC (KGWW)
91.4° F
(+16.5° F)
8 mi
32° F
(-18.7° F)
8 mi
2 in
3.3 mph
17.3 mph
24.2 mph
0.5 mph
North (3°)
Goldsboro, NC (GOLD)
90.6° F
(+15.7° F)
5 mi
33.6° F
(-17.1° F)
5 mi
4.5 in
14.2 mph
20.7 mph
0.8 mph
North (353°)
Greensboro, NC (KGSO)
91° F
(+21.4° F)
0 mi
36° F
(-11.5° F)
0 mi
6.6 in
6 mph
20.7 mph
28.8 mph
0.6 mph
North (6°)
Greensboro, NC (NCAT)
91.6° F
(+22° F)
12 mi
32.7° F
(-14.8° F)
12 mi
15.3 in
12.7 mph
21.8 mph
21.9 mph
0.3 mph
Northeast (43°)
Greenville, NC (KPGV)
91.4° F
(+18.3° F)
1 mi
35.6° F
(-13.6° F)
1 mi
2.6 in
4 mph
17.3 mph
24.2 mph
0.3 mph
East Southeast (110°)
Hatteras, NC (KHSE)
84.9° F
(+12.3° F)
0 mi
53.1° F
(-5.7° F)
0 mi
8.4 in
8.3 mph
23 mph
32.2 mph
1.7 mph
South Southeast (148°)
Hendersonville, NC (BEAR)
72.8° F
(+3.4° F)
7 mi
31.4° F
(-10.6° F)
7 mi
3.6 in
33.4 mph
40.4 mph
2 mph
North Northeast (18°)
Hickory, NC (KHKY)
90° F
(+19.4° F)
0 mi
33.1° F
(-14.7° F)
0 mi
2.5 in
3.8 mph
15 mph
23 mph
1.8 mph
North (355°)
High Point, NC (HIGH)
90.6° F
(+18.6° F)
2 mi
30.2° F
(-17.8° F)
2 mi
3.5 in
7.2 mph
13.4 mph
0.3 mph
North Northeast (33°)
Hoffman, NC (KHFF)
95° F
(+23° F)
14 mi
32.2° F
(-17.5° F)
14 mi
15.8 in
4.5 mph
17.3 mph
23 mph
1.1 mph
North Northeast (18°)
Jackson Springs, NC (JACK)
91.9° F
(+19.9° F)
0 mi
37.6° F
(-12.1° F)
0 mi
4.4 in
15.6 mph
20.6 mph
2.3 mph
Northeast (47°)
Jacksonville, NC (KNCA)
93° F
(+18° F)
4 mi
39° F
(-13.2° F)
4 mi
3.7 in
6.2 mph
18.4 mph
27.6 mph
1.6 mph
Northeast (53°)
Jacksonville, NC (KOAJ)
91.4° F
(+16.4° F)
16 mi
35.6° F
(-16.6° F)
16 mi
2.7 in
5.3 mph
19.6 mph
26.5 mph
1.1 mph
East Northeast (73°)
Jefferson, NC (KGEV)
73.4° F
(+8.2° F)
1 mi
30.2° F
(-6.7° F)
1 mi
4.7 in
3.2 mph
18.4 mph
32.2 mph
0.5 mph
South Southwest (200°)
Kenansville, NC (KDPL)
91.4° F
(+16.6° F)
3 mi
33.8° F
(-16.1° F)
3 mi
0 in
2.7 mph
15 mph
21.9 mph
0.6 mph
North Northwest (344°)
Kill Devil Hills, NC (KFFA)
91.4° F
(+20° F)
7 mi
51.8° F
(-5° F)
7 mi
0.9 in
5 mph
17.3 mph
29.9 mph
0.9 mph
East (94°)
Kinston, NC (KISO)
91.4° F
(+14.3° F)
4 mi
33.8° F
(-17.1° F)
4 mi
5.3 mph
23 mph
27.6 mph
0.9 mph
East Northeast (64°)
Kinston, NC (KINS)
92.5° F
(+15.4° F)
5 mi
36° F
(-14.9° F)
5 mi
2.1 in
16.7 mph
22.9 mph
0.4 mph
East Southeast (113°)
Laurel Springs, NC (LAUR)
80.7° F
(+17.8° F)
1 mi
23.2° F
(-12.5° F)
1 mi
14.2 in
16 mph
25.6 mph
25.3 mph
0.9 mph
Southwest (215°)
Lewiston, NC (LEWS)
93.9° F
(+20.8° F)
0 mi
35.6° F
(-12.1° F)
0 mi
3.7 in
14 mph
26.4 mph
0.4 mph
North Northeast (30°)
Lexington, NC (KEXX)
91.4° F
(+19.5° F)
5 mi
30.2° F
(-16.5° F)
5 mi
2.1 in
2.5 mph
11.5 mph
23 mph
0.5 mph
East (84°)
Lilesville, NC (LILE)
92.1° F
(+18.6° F)
9 mi
36.9° F
(