Drought Improves, But Not Yet Over

Above normal rainfall over the past 2 months has brought substantial drought relief to North Carolina.

Why such a fast recovery?

While rainfall has been above normal, we've not set many rainfall records for the past couple of months. The dramatic recovery observed in surface reservoirs is largely due to management. Water supply managers from local, state, and federal agencies have been working to minimize the amount of water released below dams across the state. That, in combination with widespread conservations efforts, has limited the rate of water removal from the reservoirs. This aggressive water supply management has allowed most of the surface reservoirs in North Carolina to have maximum benefit from the recent wet weather pattern. Indeed, nearly all surface water supply reservoirs in NC are at or above the typical level for this time of the year. Moreover, with minimal evaporation rates, most of the rain that falls in the winter and early spring goes directly to water recharge. That will change as spring turns into summer. More on that later...

So why is there still drought shown on the map?

Surface water reservoirs are only one measure of drought severity. Other indicators, including groundwater levels and streamflow, are still at low levels for this time of the year. Indeed, low groundwater and streamflow suggest that under normal operations, surface reservoir levels will drop quickly this summer without regular rainfall. Once all drought indicators show normal conditions, the drought will be over. To get to that point, we still need normal to above-normal rainfall for several weeks to months.

Climate Outlook -- will there be drought again this summer?

The latest seasonal outlook from the NWS Climate Prediction Center suggests that the southeastern US is just as likely to have below-normal rainfall as above-normal rainfall. This is typical for summer season forecasts - climatologists rarely have any guidance for summer conditions over the southeast. Indeed, we didn't forecast a drought in 2007.

But drought conditions may continue even if NC gets some rain. As the temperatures increase, evaporation from the ground and lakes will also increase, drying out the soils and reservoirs. Without normal to above-normal rainfall, we should expect drought impacts to continue through the summer. But the good news is that there is nothing that suggests we're more likely to be dry this summer than any other summer.

Photo Contest!

Have a neat picture of cool weather phenomena? Want to show it off and enter it into a contest? Well, you're in luck! Calling all 7-16 year olds! Send your pictures for a chance to win a spot on our website and a NC State prize pack!

The rules are simple. Contestants may enter up to five photos. All photos must have been taken in North Carolina. The photo must be taken by you. No digital manipulation is allowed.

The contest ends June 30, 2008. Winners will be announced by mid-July.

Go online to submit your photos!
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/contest

• Grand prize: very nice CoCoRaHS rain gage, a photo showcase on our website and in the College of Physical and Mathematical Sciences Scope Magazine, NC State Prize Pack, and a tour of the State Climate Office.
• Second place: NC State Prize Pack.
• Third place: NC State Prize Pack.

SCO Receives Award for Precipitation Project

On April 16, 2008, the State Climate Office was honored at the 10th Annual Continuous Process Improvement Conference, hosted by the NC Department of Transportation. Our work on providing high-resolution rainfall estimates and an alert website for DOT engineers was showcased. We were also honored with an award of Best Exhibit.