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North Carolina Climate, the monthly newsletter of the State Climate Office of NC, covers the record-breaking drought conditions for 2007 and continues our introduction of some student projects. These projects will be highlighted in more detail throughout the New Year.
PDF version available for printing.

 

2007 Drought North Carolina has just ended the driest year recorded since widespread precipitation records began. Based on preliminary data from observing stations across the state, 2007 was the driest year in 118 years of data. However, there has been some slight improvement in drought conditions. Heavy rains during the last week of December brought some relief to river and reservoir levels. While conditions are still classified as D4 (Exceptional) for much of central and eastern NC, water systems that were moving into dire situations have had some short-term relief.   But the outlook for the next season is still not encouraging, and indicators suggest NC is more likely to be dry than wet over the next 3-4 months. The SCO continues to devote much of our attention to drought monitoring and public education of drought and water issues as we begin 2008 with the likelihood of water restrictions continuing through the summer.

 

Student Projects Students account for much of the success of the State Climate Office. We host several undergraduate and/or graduate students each semester. The experience can be invaluable for students as they develop new skills and discover new passions. Continuing from the last newsletter, we're highlighting student projects. As projects wrap-up and are completed, we'll revisit them in greater detail in newsletters throughout the year. Undergraduate students Monica Laureano and Jennifer Marik are working on model evaluation and monitoring of real-time weather forecast models. Their primary focus is on the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI) high resolution Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. Initial evaluations have focused on precipitation. They are comparing model forecasted precipitation with multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE), which is a combination product consisting of gage corrected radar precipitation estimates. These studies will help determine the strengths and deficiencies in the model precipitation patterns and amounts. Additionally, they are comparing the WRF model with other numerical forecast models produced by the National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), such as the North American Model (NAM), the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC). These comparisons will provide additional insight to model performance and how the local RENCI WRF model performs relative to the national models. Future work includes performing statistical analysis to quantitatively evaluate the model and make recommendations for improving the model results. A 4 panel qualitative comparison plot between multiple model forecasts and the RUC analysis for the same time period.   These plots are of 300mb heights and winds.  Starting in the upper left and moving clockwise shows the RUC analysis plot, the RENCI WRF model and NCEP's NAM and GFS model.

 

Winter Weather Outlook La Niña conditions continue. La Niña (cool phase) events are typically associated with drier winters in NC. During La Niña winters, the Jet Stream is less amplified, and doesn't tend to bring as many storms to NC. We are likely to experience a drier and warmer winter than the climatological normal.

Statewide Summary for December 2007

As part of the monthly newsletter, the SCO provides a basic summary of monthly conditions for all locations that have an automated reporting station. A daily version of this products is available online at:
http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/cronos/review/

 

	Data for December 2007
Station Max Temp Min Temp Total Rainfall Avg Wind Speed Max Wind Speed Max Wind Gust Vector Avg Wind Speed Ahoskie, NC (KASJ) 80.6° F (+25.6° F) 11 mi 21.2° F (-11.7° F) 11 mi 2.4 in 3.4 mph 17.3 mph 23 mph 0.9 mph North Northeast (13°) Albemarle, NC (KVUJ) 77° F (+23.5° F) 3 mi 26.6° F (-3.8° F) 3 mi 0.2 in 3.6 mph 19.6 mph 29.9 mph 1.9 mph South Southwest (200°) Andrews, NC (KRHP) 75.2° F (+23.4° F) 1 mi 17.6° F (-10.1° F) 1 mi 2.1 in 2.1 mph 16.1 mph 28.8 mph 1.1 mph West Southwest (254°) Asheboro, NC (KHBI) 80.6° F (+29.1° F) 5 mi 21.2° F (-11.8° F) 5 mi 1.3 in 3.9 mph 17.3 mph 28.8 mph 1 mph Southwest (234°) Asheville, NC (KAVL) 73.9° F (+24.6° F) 0 mi 16° F (-12.8° F) 0 mi 4.1 in 6.3 mph 23 mph 34.5 mph 1.4 mph North Northwest (326°) Aurora, NC (AURO) 76.9° F (+20.1° F) 4 mi 27.5° F (-7.4° F) 4 mi 2.9 in 16.8 mph 25.9 mph 1 mph West Northwest (293°) Beaufort, NC (KMRH) 73.9° F (+13.6° F) 4 mi 30.9° F (-8° F) 4 mi 5.1 in 8.6 mph 32.2 mph 40.3 mph 2.4 mph Northwest (311°) Bogue, NC (KNJM) 72° F (+13.6° F) 17 mi 32° F (-5.8° F) 17 mi 2.9 mph 9.2 mph 17.3 mph 1.7 mph Southwest (230°) Boone, NC (KTNB) 71.6° F (+28° F) 1 mi 17.6° F (-4.8° F) 1 mi 1.6 in 6.9 mph 34.5 mph 50.6 mph 5.3 mph West (278°) Boone, NC (BOON) 69° F (+25.4° F) 1 mi 15.1° F (-7.3° F) 1 mi 4.3 in 26.6 mph 38.2 mph 3.7 mph West Northwest (282°) Buckland, NC (BUCK) 78.7° F (+25.5° F) 15 mi 20.5° F (-9.3° F) 15 mi 4.4 in 10.3 mph 19.7 mph 22.3 mph 0.4 mph West (275°) Burlington, NC (KBUY) 79° F (+25.6° F) 2 mi 19° F (-11.4° F) 2 mi 3.7 in 4.7 mph 26.5 mph 42.6 mph 1.4 mph West Northwest (298°) Castle Hayne, NC (CAST) 78.6° F (+19.3° F) 0 mi 22.1° F (-13.8° F) 0 mi 4.9 in 16.5 mph 31.5 mph 27 mph 1.1 mph North Northwest (332°) Chapel Hill, NC (KIGX) 79° F (+26.2° F) 2 mi 19.9° F (-10.4° F) 2 mi 4.2 in 3.7 mph 21.9 mph 36.8 mph 2 mph North (1°) Charlotte, NC (KCLT) 80.1° F (+26.1° F) 1 mi 19° F (-15.9° F) 1 mi 4.2 in 5.9 mph 19.6 mph 27.6 mph 0.4 mph North (351°) Cherry Point, NC (KNKT) 78.1° F (+19.7° F) 0 mi 24.1° F (-13.7° F) 0 mi 4.4 in 7.7 mph 26.5 mph 43.7 mph 1.6 mph Northwest (317°) Clayton, NC (CLAY) 77.6° F (+24.5° F) 3 mi 25.2° F (-6.3° F) 3 mi 3.2 in 25.3 mph 33.9 mph 1 mph West Northwest (287°) Clayton, NC (CLA2) 79.2° F (+26.1° F) 3 mi 16.5° F (-15° F) 3 mi 5 in 14.6 mph 26.3 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (324°) Clinton, NC (KCTZ) 80.6° F (+25.1° F) 6 mi 21.2° F (-12.8° F) 6 mi 3.5 in 3.7 mph 20.7 mph 28.8 mph 0.8 mph Northwest (311°) Clinton, NC (CLIN) 78.5° F (+23° F) 0 mi 21.5° F (-12.5° F) 0 mi 7.4 in 17.8 mph 24.8 mph 27.4 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (305°) Concord, NC (KJQF) 80.6° F (+26.6° F) 6 mi 19.4° F (-11.1° F) 6 mi 4.2 mph 21.9 mph 34.5 mph 1.2 mph West Northwest (282°) Currituck, NC (KONX) 71.6° F (+15.4° F) 12 mi 28.4° F (-7.2° F) 12 mi 1.8 in 6.7 mph 24.2 mph 36.8 mph 2 mph Northwest (309°) Edenton, NC (KEDE) 75.2° F (+19.1° F) 3 mi 24.8° F (-11.4° F) 3 mi 1.7 in 6.6 mph 24.2 mph 33.4 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (315°) Elizabeth City, NC (KECG) 78.1° F (+23.1° F) 1 mi 24.1° F (-12° F) 1 mi 2.2 in 9.3 mph 40.3 mph 47.2 mph 1.7 mph North Northwest (342°) Elizabethtown, NC (KEYF) 78.8° F (+21.1° F) 4 mi 23° F (-11° F) 4 mi 2.4 in 3.4 mph 21.9 mph 28.8 mph 1.4 mph West Southwest (245°) Erwin, NC (KHRJ) 78.8° F (+24.8° F) 5 mi 24.8° F (-6.4° F) 5 mi 2.9 in 3.8 mph 19.6 mph 26.5 mph 0.2 mph West Northwest (298°) Fayetteville, NC (KFAY) 80.1° F (+24.6° F) 5 mi 21.9° F (-11.9° F) 5 mi 4.4 in 7.4 mph 24.2 mph 34.5 mph 1.4 mph Northwest (308°) Fletcher, NC (FLET) 73.5° F (+24.1° F) 0 mi 14.9° F (-10.2° F) 0 mi 4.1 in 15.2 mph 22.1 mph 1.3 mph North Northwest (348°) Fort Bragg, NC (KFBG) 79.5° F (+23.5° F) 5 mi 22.3° F (-13.5° F) 5 mi 4.4 in 5.3 mph 27.6 mph 46 mph 1.5 mph West Northwest (296°) Franklin, NC (K1A5) 73.4° F (+23° F) 3 mi 17.6° F (-8.6° F) 3 mi 1 in 1.9 mph 15 mph 26.5 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (305°) Franklin, NC (WINE) 61.3° F (+10.9° F) 11 mi 9.3° F (-16.9° F) 11 mi 0 in 23.4 mph 30.7 mph 5.2 mph West (262°) Frying Pan Mountain, NC (FRYI) 65.5° F (+16.5° F) 10 mi 10.8° F (-15.2° F) 10 mi 0 in 39.8 mph 46.5 mph 4.3 mph South Southwest (196°) Gastonia, NC (KAKH) 81° F (+27.7° F) 4 mi 19.9° F (-12.1° F) 4 mi 3.9 in 4.1 mph 17.3 mph 28.8 mph 1.7 mph North (5°) Goldsboro, NC (KGSB) 79.5° F (+22.4° F) 0 mi 20.7° F (-14.8° F) 0 mi 5.4 in 6.6 mph 28.8 mph 38 mph 1.2 mph West Northwest (297°) Goldsboro, NC (KGWW) 78.8° F (+21.7° F) 8 mi 21.2° F (-14.3° F) 8 mi 3 in 4.9 mph 21.9 mph 34.5 mph 1 mph West Northwest (293°) Goldsboro, NC (GOLD) 77.5° F (+20.4° F) 5 mi 17.9° F (-17.6° F) 5 mi 4.8 in 22.5 mph 30.9 mph 1 mph West (272°) Greensboro, NC (KGSO) 78.1° F (+27.5° F) 0 mi 21.9° F (-9.5° F) 0 mi 3.2 in 7.1 mph 31.1 mph 43.7 mph 1.2 mph West Northwest (297°) Greensboro, NC (NCAT) 77.5° F (+26.9° F) 12 mi 22.5° F (-8.9° F) 12 mi 6.7 in 16.3 mph 25.4 mph 25.6 mph 0.9 mph West Northwest (300°) Greenville, NC (KPGV) 78.8° F (+23.4° F) 1 mi 21.2° F (-12.6° F) 1 mi 2.9 in 5.1 mph 25.3 mph 33.4 mph 0.8 mph West Northwest (303°) Hatteras, NC (KHSE) 72° F (+14.7° F) 0 mi 35.1° F (-7.5° F) 0 mi 3.9 in 8.7 mph 33.4 mph 43.7 mph 2.5 mph Northwest (309°) Hendersonville, NC (BEAR) 63.8° F (+11.8° F) 7 mi 14.1° F (-14.2° F) 7 mi 4 in 48.5 mph 57.1 mph 6.6 mph North Northeast (22°) Hickory, NC (KHKY) 77° F (+25.2° F) 0 mi 19° F (-12.8° F) 0 mi 3.7 in 4.3 mph 21.9 mph 31.1 mph 1.7 mph North Northwest (329°) High Point, NC (HIGH) 77.7° F (+24.8° F) 2 mi 18.7° F (-13.8° F) 2 mi 3.5 in 13.2 mph 22.7 mph 0.7 mph North Northwest (334°) Hoffman, NC (KHFF) 79.2° F (+26.3° F) 14 mi 16.5° F (-17.4° F) 14 mi 5.9 in 5.3 mph 20.7 mph 35.7 mph 0.9 mph West Northwest (283°) Jackson Springs, NC (JACK) 77° F (+24.1° F) 0 mi 25.1° F (-8.8° F) 0 mi 4.9 in 17.9 mph 26.7 mph 0.8 mph North Northwest (336°) Jacksonville, NC (KNCA) 79° F (+20° F) 4 mi 21° F (-15.1° F) 4 mi 2.6 in 6.6 mph 32.2 mph 49.5 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (311°) Jacksonville, NC (KOAJ) 80.6° F (+21.6° F) 16 mi 17.6° F (-18.5° F) 16 mi 2.5 in 6.1 mph 28.8 mph 35.7 mph 0.9 mph West Northwest (296°) Jefferson, NC (KGEV) 73.4° F (+26.5° F) 1 mi 19.4° F (-3.5° F) 1 mi 3.1 in 6.9 mph 33.4 mph 50.6 mph 4.5 mph West (277°) Kenansville, NC (KDPL) 78.8° F (+21.3° F) 3 mi 17.6° F (-17.4° F) 3 mi 2.6 in 4.1 mph 23 mph 38 mph 1.4 mph Northwest (304°) Kill Devil Hills, NC (KFFA) 75.2° F (+19.9° F) 7 mi 35.6° F (-4.4° F) 7 mi 2.5 in 7.2 mph 24.2 mph 39.1 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (317°) Kinston, NC (KISO) 78.8° F (+19.5° F) 4 mi 19.4° F (-16.7° F) 4 mi 5.8 mph 20.7 mph 32.2 mph 1.1 mph West Northwest (290°) Kinston, NC (KINS) 78° F (+18.7° F) 5 mi 22.5° F (-13.6° F) 5 mi 3.7 in 18.9 mph 26.5 mph 1.1 mph West (267°) Laurel Springs, NC (LAUR) 68.9° F (+24.4° F) 1 mi 15.2° F (-6° F) 1 mi 7.7 in 20.2 mph 33.3 mph 36.9 mph 1.9 mph West (277°) Lewiston, NC (LEWS) 77.8° F (+22.8° F) 0 mi 24.2° F (-8.7° F) 0 mi 3.6 in 22.7 mph 29.7 mph 1.3 mph West Northwest (291°) Lexington, NC (KEXX) 78.8° F (+26.2° F) 5 mi 19.4° F (-11.6° F) 5 mi 1.7 in 2.6 mph 16.1 mph 28.8 mph 0.1 mph North Northeast (12°) Lilesville, NC (LILE) 79.5° F (+24.9° F) 9 mi 26° F (-8.4° F) 9 mi 7.2 in 14.9 mph 63.1 mph 35.1 mph 0.8 mph Southwest (232°) Lincolnton, NC (KIPJ) 78.8° F (+26.3° F) 10 mi 17.6° F (-14.1° F) 10 mi 2.4 in 2.7 mph 20.7 mph 31.1 mph 0.8 mph West Northwest (286°) Louisburg, NC (KLHZ) 77° F (+22.7° F) 6 mi 21.2° F (-6° F) 6 mi 0.8 in 3.4 mph 16.1 mph 27.6 mph 0.8 mph West Northwest (303°) Lumberton, NC (KLBT) 80.1° F (+23.3° F) 2 mi 19.9° F (-12.6° F) 2 mi 2.7 in 5.8 mph 25.3 mph 39.1 mph 1.1 mph Northwest (315°) Manteo, NC (KMQI) 73.4° F (+18.1° F) 0 mi 32° F (-8° F) 0 mi 2.5 in 8.9 mph 31.1 mph 46 mph 1.6 mph North Northwest (348°) Maxton, NC (KMEB) 80.1° F (+24.9° F) 6 mi 19.9° F (-14.6° F) 6 mi 0.5 in 6.8 mph 25.3 mph 34.5 mph 0.8 mph West Northwest (294°) Monroe, NC (KEQY) 79° F (+24.2° F) 6 mi 19.9° F (-13.3° F) 6 mi 3.7 in 6.5 mph 24.2 mph 33.4 mph 1.7 mph West Northwest (286°) Morganton, NC (KMRN) 77° F (+25.6° F) 7 mi 23° F (-4.3° F) 7 mi 0.4 in 2.5 mph 19.6 mph 28.8 mph 0.8 mph Northwest (309°) Mount Airy, NC (KMWK) 73.4° F (+24.1° F) 6 mi 21.2° F (-5.4° F) 6 mi 2.5 in 2.8 mph 21.9 mph 35.7 mph 0.8 mph Northeast (41°) New Bern, NC (KEWN) 79° F (+21.3° F) 1 mi 21.9° F (-14.4° F) 1 mi 2.6 in 5.5 mph 20.7 mph 35.7 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (319°) North Wilkesboro, NC (KUKF) 78.8° F (+28.2° F) 5 mi 19.4° F (-6.3° F) 5 mi 2.8 mph 23 mph 34.5 mph 1 mph West Northwest (296°) Oxford, NC (KHNZ) 80.6° F (+28.6° F) 6 mi 23° F (-7.3° F) 6 mi 2.9 in 5.7 mph 24.2 mph 35.7 mph 1 mph West (266°) Oxford, NC (OXFO) 78.2° F (+26.2° F) 0 mi 23.2° F (-7.1° F) 0 mi 4.2 in 16.4 mph 25.8 mph 0.8 mph West Northwest (302°) Plymouth, NC (PLYM) 78° F (+20.5° F) 2 mi 21.3° F (-14.7° F) 2 mi 2.3 in 24.5 mph 32.7 mph 1.4 mph North Northwest (338°) Pope AFB, NC (KPOB) 80.1° F (+24.1° F) 0 mi 19.6° F (-16.2° F) 0 mi 3.2 in 5.8 mph 25.3 mph 38 mph 1.2 mph West Northwest (299°) Raleigh, NC (KRDU) 81° F (+27.7° F) 0 mi 21° F (-11.6° F) 0 mi 4.5 in 6.2 mph 20.7 mph 32.2 mph 0.5 mph West (259°) Raleigh, NC (LAKE) 77.3° F (+23.1° F) 0 mi 21.6° F (-13.3° F) 0 mi 6.1 in 22.6 mph 32.4 mph 30.6 mph 1.3 mph West Northwest (292°) Raleigh, NC (REED) 77.6° F (+25.5° F) 3 mi 23.6° F (-9.9° F) 3 mi 3.1 in 22.3 mph 35 mph 0.8 mph North Northwest (336°) Reidsville, NC (KSIF) 80.6° F 23° F 1.7 in 3.3 mph 21.9 mph 35.7 mph 1.2 mph West Northwest (287°) Reidsville, NC (REID) 76.4° F (+25.4° F) 0 mi 24.7° F (-5.8° F) 0 mi 3 in 21.7 mph 30.8 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (314°) Roanoke Rapids, NC (KRZZ) 81° F (+29° F) 3 mi 21.9° F (-9° F) 3 mi 4.3 in 4.7 mph 23 mph 41.4 mph 2.1 mph North Northwest (333°) Rockingham, NC (KRCZ) 80.6° F (+24.7° F) 4 mi 21.2° F (-9.1° F) 4 mi 3.5 in 5.1 mph 20.7 mph 29.9 mph 0.6 mph West (260°) Rocky Mount, NC (KRWI) 78.1° F 19° F 4.7 in 5.6 mph 21.9 mph 35.7 mph 1.3 mph Northwest (314°) Rocky Mount, NC (ROCK) 78.1° F (+23.2° F) 0 mi 21.6° F (-12.1° F) 0 mi 5 in 17 mph 26 mph 0.6 mph Northwest (325°) Roxboro, NC (KTDF) 80.6° F (+29.3° F) 7 mi 19.4° F (-8.9° F) 7 mi 0.4 in 4.4 mph 25.3 mph 38 mph 0.6 mph West Northwest (303°) Rutherfordton, NC (KFQD) 80.6° F (+28° F) 11 mi 21.2° F (-6.9° F) 11 mi 1.9 in 2.9 mph 17.3 mph 31.1 mph 0.5 mph West Northwest (285°) Salisbury, NC (KRUQ) 62.6° F (+9.1° F) 3 mi 21.2° F (-10.6° F) 3 mi 0.5 in 5.2 mph 19.6 mph 29.9 mph 0.9 mph North Northwest (338°) Salisbury, NC (SALI) 77° F (+25.7° F) 0 mi 14.9° F (-13.4° F) 0 mi 4 in 21.1 mph 29.3 mph 0.8 mph Northwest (319°) Sanford, NC (KTTA) 78.8° F (+23.6° F) 5 mi 17.6° F (-14° F) 5 mi 1.2 in 3.7 mph 17.3 mph 27.6 mph 1.3 mph North Northwest (344°) Shelby, NC (KEHO) 71.6° F (+20.1° F) 6 mi 21.2° F (-8.6° F) 6 mi 4 in 4.7 mph 23 mph 31.1 mph 1.4 mph North (9°) Siler City, NC (SILR) 77.9° F (+25.2° F) 5 mi 14.7° F (-16.9° F) 5 mi 3.5 in 20.4 mph 27 mph 0.9 mph Northwest (315°) Smithfield, NC (KJNX) 80.6° F (+25.8° F) 3 mi 17.6° F (-14° F) 3 mi 2.7 mph 18.4 mph 32.2 mph 0.7 mph West Northwest (298°) Southern Pines, NC (KSOP) 80.6° F 15.8° F 5.9 mph 23 mph 32.2 mph 1.2 mph West Southwest (258°) Southport, NC (KSUT) 73.4° F (+13.9° F) 6 mi 26.6° F (-9.2° F) 6 mi 1.8 in 5.8 mph 24.2 mph 35.7 mph 1.4 mph Northwest (324°) Statesville, NC (KSVH) 77° F (+24.4° F) 5 mi 19.4° F (-10.2° F) 5 mi 3.2 in 3.9 mph 21.9 mph 38 mph 1.1 mph Northwest (317°) Wadesboro, NC (KAFP) 80.6° F (+26° F) 4 mi 17.6° F (-16.8° F) 4 mi 2.7 in 3.7 mph 20.7 mph 28.8 mph 0.6 mph West (272°) Washington, NC (KOCW) 80.6° F 24.8° F 1.9 in 4.9 mph 20.7 mph 32.2 mph 0.8 mph North Northwest (327°) Waynesville, NC (WAYN) 71.2° F (+21° F) 0 mi 13° F (-11° F) 0 mi 3.1 in 18.4 mph 31.9 mph 0.8 mph West Southwest (245°) Whiteville, NC (KCPC) 78.8° F (+19.2° F) 10 mi 19.4° F (-15.1° F) 10 mi 1.3 in 3.7 mph 20.7 mph 32.2 mph 0.2 mph West Southwest (255°) Whiteville, NC (WHIT) 79.5° F (+19.9° F) 0 mi 18.2° F (-16.3° F) 0 mi 3.6 in 16.4 mph 23.8 mph 0.7 mph Northwest (314°) Williamston, NC (WILL) 78.4° F (+22.9° F) 4 mi 22.3° F (-12.1° F) 4 mi 3.3 in 17.3 mph 25.7 mph 0.9 mph West Northwest (292°) Wilmington, NC (KILM) 79° F (+19.4° F) 0 mi 21° F (-17.1° F) 0 mi 3 in 7 mph 26.5 mph 40.3 mph 1.5 mph Northwest (308°) Winston Salem, NC (KINT) 77° F (+26.4° F) 16 mi 21° F (-10.4° F) 16 mi 3.9 in 5.5 mph 24.2 mph 34.5 mph 1.9 mph North Northwest (347°)

 

Legend:

Parameter

Parameter's value approximated from hourly data. ( +/- Departure from normal ) Distance to reference station

 

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