Climate Summary

Temperature and Precipitation by climate division
Departures from Normal for October 2009 - based on preliminary data.

October 2009 continued the same story told the previous month. Heavy rains fell in the western half of North Carolina, while conditions in the eastern half were generally much drier. Temperatures across most of North Carolina were near-normal to slightly below-normal in October. The Northern Coastal Plain was the warmest and driest region for the month.

Localized flooding was observed in western NC in October, but damages were not widely reported. Wet conditions in western NC in September and October did contribute to the muted colors of fall foliage in that region.

Impacts to Agriculture and Water Resources

In eastern parts of North Carolina, drier conditions helped some growers with harvest. Periods of rainfall delayed harvest for some growers, especially in western parts of the state. Harvest for most crops is similar or ahead of last year.

Drought concerns in eastern NC continue. Water restrictions were implemented in Siler City and Rocky Mount in response to low stream flows. Similarly, Jordan and Falls reservoirs are below levels typical for this time of year. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions expanded in October to include much of the eastern Piedmont region in central NC. The NC Drought Management Advisory Council continues to hold weekly monitoring meetings to closely monitor for drought impacts.

Precipitation for October 2009
Based on estimates from NWS Radar
Data courtesy NWS/NCEP

Precipitation for October 2009: Percent of Normal
Based on estimates from NWS Radar
Data courtesy NWS/NCEP

Change in US Drought Monitoring Status during October 2009
Provided by the NC DENR Division of Water Resources

Winter Weather Outlook

Temperature outlook, valid December through February

Precipitation outlook, valid December through February

The ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer that normal now, a phase called El Nino. This event is expected to peak in the mid- to late-winter as a moderate-to-strong El Nino. Historically, winters in NC tend to be wet during El Nino events. NC is more likely to experience more coastal storms, and has an increase chance of frozen precipitation during El Nino events. This is represented in the seasonal forecast guidance from the NWS Climate Prediction Center. While there are many factors that drive seasonal forecasts, we're more confident in the outlooks during stronger El Nino events.

Recent News

New Station
The State Climate Office recently constructed a new ECONet station in Stanly County.

Kendall Valley Elementary School (NEWL)
Location: New London, Stanly County
Installed in October 2009; supported by the Renaissance Computing Institute (RENCI)


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Carolinas and Virginia Climate Conference
On October 20-21 the Carolinas and Virginia Climate Conference was held to discuss climatology and climate-related issues specifically affecting North Carolina, South Carolina and Virginia. Climatologists, meteorologists, and researchers met in Wilmington, NC to learn more about climate work being done across the region. The State Climate Office of NC was given the opportunity to present on the office's climate outreach and operational climate products. Such products include the Hurricane Climatology Toolkit, Heat Index Climatology, Holiday Climatology, Recreation Climatology (not yet operational), and Winter Weather Climatology. The SCO also presented on Agroclimate, a reference crop evapotranspiration climatology for the Southeast, and various other agriculture and water resources related products that are currently under development.