Climate Summary

Temperature and Precipitation by climate division
Departures from Normal for November 2010 - based on preliminary data.

November 2010 in North Carolina was fairly calm, at least from a climate perspective. With the exception of storms across western NC during the last day of the month, most of November was quiet, a bit cool, and a bit dry. This was most pronounced in central and eastern NC, where rainfall has been relatively infrequent since September.

A strong cold front moved through NC on November 30 and brought warnings to areas of western NC. Flooding was reported in Hendersonville, Brevard, and Marion. Severe thunderstorm warnings due to damaging winds were issued by National Weather Service late on November 30 and the overnight hours of December 1. Damage from high winds was reported along the I-85 corridor between the Charlotte and Triad metropolitan areas.

Precipitation for November 2010
Based on estimates from NWS Radar
Data courtesy NWS/NCEP

Precipitation for November 2010: Percent of Normal
Based on estimates from NWS Radar
Data courtesy NWS/NCEP

Impacts to Agriculture and Water Resources

The quiet, dry month of November allowed harvesting to progress quickly. Top soil moisture levels for most of the state remain adequate for winter grains.

Rainfall is quickly being added the wish list for many water managers. Dry conditions in central and eastern NC resulted in the expansion of D0 Abnormally Dry conditions in those regions. Winter is the period when we generally see re-charge in water resources (groundwater, streams, surface reservoirs), and managers will be watching to see how much recharge occurs during this coming winter with a La Nina event and drier conditions expected. While the most severe drought impacts are generally experienced during the summer, drought conditions can worsen even during winter months.

The NC Drought Management Advisory Council continues to have weekly technical conferences to review conditions and make recommendations to the US Drought Monitor.

US Drought Monitor for North Carolina
Courtesy NC DENR Division of Water Resources

Christmas Climatology

Below you will find the warmest, coldest and wettest Christmas Days on record for various cities across North Carolina. The National Climatic Data Center has also put together information on the probability of a White Christmas for the U.S, which can be accessed here. A graphic of these probabilities is also found below.

What La Nina Means for the Winter

You may have heard about the La Nina event that is ongoing in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Historically, La Nina events are associated with overall drier and warmers winters in NC. What this means is that once the winter comes to an end and we look back, the average temperature is more likely to be above normal, and the total precipitation is more likely to be below-normal. A dry winter could have impacts if there is insufficient recharge for our water resources. The La Nina events of 1999-2002 brought consecutive dry winters and dropped water table levels each year so that by the spring of 2002, many streams were low and reservoirs hadn’t recharged. That primed us for extreme drought conditions in central and western NC during the summer of 2002.

But even with the climate forecast for an overall warmer, drier winter, there will still be lots of short-term weather events that will still have an impact. Indeed, we will likely have a few days with very warm weather, but still lots of days with cold temperatures. We will still have strong winter storms and probably even some snow, sleet, or freezing rain. For example, in late January 2000 (a La Nina winter), 20 inches of snow fell over central NC and impacted the US1 corridor for weeks.

So while the climate for the coming winter is more likely to be warmer and drier, we’ll still have plenty of interesting weather to handle.